Why Hasn’t Kansas City Had Decent Snow For Past 10 Years?

Indeed, over roughly the past decade, the region’s snowfall totals have often come in below what many previous generations remember from previous years, especially in December through May. My parents (and historical weather records) recall several snow events from the late 50s to 80s in the KC area. There are a few factors that may help explain why we’ve seen this trend:

1. Year-to-Year (and Decadal) Variability

Weather patterns naturally vary on both short (seasonal) and long (multiyear) cycles. It’s entirely possible for Kansas City to go through a “snow drought” for several consecutive winters, then flip back to more “regular” snowfall. A 10-year stretch can be enough to notice a pattern, but it’s still a relatively short period in terms of climate. In other words, we could simply be in a decadal lull and might swing back to more robust winters in the near future.

2. Changing Storm Tracks & Jet Stream Patterns

A key factor for winter weather in the central U.S. is the position of the jet stream and the tracks that winter storms take across the country. If the main storm track frequently stays north or south of Kansas City—or if storms arrive with insufficient cold air in place—accumulating snowfall can be significantly reduced. Over the past decade, many large winter systems have tracked too far north or east, leaving KC either on the warmer side of the system or in the “dry slot.” Slight shifts in jet stream patterns can make a big difference in who gets snow vs. cold rain.

Influences on the Jet Stream

• El Niño / La Niña:

  • These Pacific Ocean temperature patterns can steer the jet stream in ways that favor (or disfavor) big snows in the central Plains.

• Polar Vortex Strength:

  • A stronger polar vortex can lock cold air closer to the Arctic, while a weaker one may allow frigid outbreaks farther south. Sometimes, those cold air outbreaks don’t sync up with storm systems over KC, so you end up with either cold but dry conditions—or wet but warmer conditions (ending up as rain, sleet, or freezing rain instead of snow.

3. Gradual Warming Trends & Local Effects

Although 10 years isn’t long enough to draw a firm conclusion about climate change effects (climate starts with at least 30 years of observations to see weather patterns), we do know that overall average temperatures have been ticking upward in many parts of the country over the past 30 years. 

Even a small temperature increase (particularly at night or on the edges of a storm) can tip the scales from snow to a chilly rain—or reduce how long snow stays on the ground. Additionally, local urban effects, such as heat retention from buildings and pavement, can keep surface temperatures slightly warmer, sometimes diminishing snowfall accumulation, especially near the city center.

Future Outlook

Because weather is cyclical, there’s a reasonable chance we’ll see more “classic” winters again—even if the decade has felt lacking. Seasonal forecasts for upcoming winters, especially if an El Niño sets up, can sometimes bring above-average precipitation to parts of the central U.S. The million-dollar question is always where that precipitation falls as snow vs. rain, and when the atmospheric ingredients will line up.

In Short

• Natural Variability: A 10-year stretch can be part of a longer cycle that we won’t be able to recognize until later in the cycle 
• Storm Tracks: The jet stream has placed Kansas City on the less-snowy side of storms too often recently
• Warming Trends: Slightly milder (warmer than average) conditions vertically can turn borderline snow events into rain.

I hope this helps explain some of the reasons behind the shift you’ve noticed. It’s frustrating for snow enthusiasts, but the weather can always surprise us—so don’t lose hope for those magical, snowy winters to make a return, as climate models show occasional snowstorms even with warmer global temperatures!