The Top 4 Questions People Ask Meteorologists

When I mention that I studied Meteorology to strangers I meet, inevitably they ask a few standard questions that are often the result of ignorance or political leanings. Here are the top four questions that nearly every non-meteorologist asks:

1. What channel are you on?
   
   
   • I’m a meteorologist who doesn’t appear on TV, though I used to teach weather safety and how weather works to K-12 students, teachers, and public safety officials, so I’m comfortable talking about the weather with anyone. Most meteorologists work behind the scenes, analyzing weather data, developing forecasts, and conducting research.
   • Meteorologists work for the government through the National Weather Service, national research centers like National Severe Storms Lab (NSSL), climatological centers, universities, as well as in private businesses concerned with shipping, energy, and agriculture. Those who do appear on TV are just a small, visible fraction of the profession (at most 10% of employed meteorologists).
   
   Better questions to ask a meteorologist: “What type of meteorologist are you / what do you study? Where do you work?”
   
   
2. Will it rain in 6 months at my location? I want to get married outside that day.
   
   
   • Forecasting specific weather conditions such as rainfall so far in advance is highly challenging. Long-term forecasts can predict trends or patterns like a wetter or drier than usual season (using our knowledge of climatology–the accumulation of individual weather events over several decades), but pinpointing exact days for rain months ahead is beyond our current weather model capabilities (maximum 10 days is the current limit of useful predictability).
   • In fact, precipitation is especially difficult to forecast more than a few days in advance, in part due to tiny changes leading to great differences in forecast results. For example, if the weather models predict that there will be sufficient moisture for rain to form, but that moisture doesn’t actually appear (perhaps because a weather system moved through, drawing in dry air–not predicted by the model), we may see dry conditions when we expected wet.
   
   Better questions to ask a meteorologist: “What is the seasonal outlook for my area? Why are there limitations to the reliability of model forecasts?“
   
   
3. Why are meteorologists wrong all of the time?
   
   
   • Meteorologists aren’t wrong all the time, but the public mainly notices the “busts” (where meteorologists predicted something that didn’t end up happening or the person was negatively impacted by the weather). According to Marshall Shepherd, meteorologist, NASA scientist, and former president of the American Meteorological Society (AMS): “Meteorologists are able to predict, with up to 90% or more accuracy within 2 – 5 days, how a complex fluid on a rotating planet with oceans, mountains, and varying heat distributions changes.”
   • Weather prediction has improved dramatically over the past 50 years, but it remains a complex science with inherent uncertainties.
   • Meteorologists are trying to predict something that is mostly invisible. How well would you do predicting exactly where your child is if you couldn’t see or hear him? Without constant high-quality data, weather models can’t accurately predict what will happen next (garbage in, garbage out).
   • Factors like sudden atmospheric changes can alter forecasts. Remember, when a forecast is 90% accurate, it gets noticed less than the 10% of times when it might be wrong. Also, humans tend to remember the misses more than the times that the meteorologist is right.
   
   Better questions to ask a meteorologist: “What does a 20% chance of rain really mean? What limitations are there in forecasting weather for my backyard at a specific time? How can weather models be improved today?”
   
   
4. Do you believe in climate change? Is it real?
   
   
   • Believe isn’t the right word—it’s about scientific evidence, not scientific belief. As a scientist, I acknowledge the vast body of research showing that climate change is real, affected by natural cycles, yet is now also affected by human activities (aka anthropogenic climate change). This is supported by an overwhelming consensus in the scientific community: climate change is not “either/or” natural vs anthropogenic, it’s “and” (natural AND man-made effects).
   • Above we mentioned that there’s about a 10-day limit of predictability to weather model forecasts. Climate models are very different from weather models (apples vs oranges comparison), so climate forecasts can be used to predict months and even years into the future.

Better questions to ask a meteorologist: “What is the current thinking on climate change based on published studies, not opinions or political biases?”