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Can Moon Declination Forecast Temperatures?

Moon declination effect on temperature

Question:

My grandmother used to look at the moon and say if the temperature would be hot or cold. I think she was referring to the declination of the moon. If it was further north then the weather would be colder. If further south then warmer. I can see how the moon can have tidal effects on the atmosphere, but is there any truth to this folklore? – Jim B.

Answer:

Your grandmother is right that the moon affects Earth’s temperature: at Full Moon, the poles can experience temperatures up to a degree Fahrenheit HIGHER than at New Moon (an average of 0.036 F across the globe). We do know that the Moon helps to keep our climate (long-term weather patterns) more stable than if it didn’t exist where it is – keeping Earth’s seasons fairly stable and predictable (less wobbling of the Earth’s tilt that gives us our seasons).

The lunar tidal effects are more noticeable in the ocean than in the atmosphere, especially with the changes of the moon’s orbital plane shifting in relation to Earth’s equator over a 18.6 year period, greatly affecting how warm water at the ocean surface mixes with the cold water below. Here’s one study that looked into weather folklore in the Mediterranean (rainy vs. dry period forecasted by observing the moon’s “horns” changing – likely due to the Moon’s declination shifts over the 18.6 year period):  https://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/2000ESASP.463..555U

The experts to check with are planetary scientists at NASA – in meteorology, we don’t often look at how the moon affects weather, as the evidence of major effects is scant so far (the sun has a much stronger influence on Earth’s weather, which can make it tougher to study the Moon’s more subtle effects)…we are far more focused on what happens in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. But planetary scientists bridge the sciences of meteorology and astronomy – they’re more likely to know if moon declination may be used to infer temperature changes on Earth.
 
I did find a study from University of Washington that found that lunar forces affect the amount of rain – slightly. When the Moon is overhead or underfoot, the overall air pressure is higher due to the Earth’s atmosphere bulging toward the Moon’s gravity, making it slightly less likely that rain will occur with the decreased humidity that comes with higher pressure in the vertical column. The change is tiny, but measurable, making it useful in climate and weather models, but not strong enough evidence to say that a Moon high in the sky means less chance of rain overall.
 
Here’s an article explaining the results: https://www.washington.edu/news/2016/01/29/phases-of-the-moon-affect-amount-of-rainfall/ and the quite technical paper that the researchers published: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL067342

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